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The Stock Market

04 Apr 2020

Yet the more money that gets locked into buying of index funds, the less there is left to support the trading of stocks in the open stock market.

Behavioral Investing

24 Feb 2019

Behavioral investing is a complicated process. Investing does require some study of company’s history and financial statements.

Trumped

21 Dec 2018

Trump attitude: “we can hurt you more than you can hurt us”, might be right but is not the best way to deal with a country who will be big customer.

Warren Buffett vs Wall Street

30 Jun 2018

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger disagree with MPT. Charlie summed up Buffett’s response by declaring, “Modern Portfolio Theory is twaddle”.

Globalism, 1982-2000 Bull Market

31 Mar 2018

With this strong demographic background, Corporate Earnings can repeat the rate of growth we saw from globalism from 1995 to 2000.

Volatility Underlying Calm Market

27 Oct 2017

3td Quarter 2017 Letter: Volatility Underlying a Calm Market, Middle Class Growth 2015-2030, Brookings Institution’s Estimates, LKQ Corporation.

What’s new with CB&I?

05 Jul 2017

Over the last six months anticipating an ambiguous or unfavorable Delaware Supreme Court ruling, CB&I’s share price plummeted more than 60%.

Passive Investing

19 May 2017

The function of the stock market should be to allocate capital to companies that can use it effectively, passive investing is hindering this function.

Economic Cycles

28 Apr 2017

The best investment philosophy understands the cyclical nature of our economy, using these economic cycles rather than getting used by them.

Current Stock Market 2017 Comment

31 Jan 2017

The FED indicates it might raise interest rates three time and stock market 2017 gets upset. Stock market 2017 will decline, from what point?

Global Plastics Summit Highlights

26 Oct 2016

The Global Plastics Summit was produced by IHS in Chicago. The petrochemical industry is experiencing new life thanks to the shale revolution.

Value Investing vs Index Investing

04 Oct 2016

The task of the value investing is to make as intelligent an estimate as possible of company's potential future cash flows.

How to Play an Index Bubble

21 Aug 2016

With the SP trading at 17.2 times forward earning and the CAPE over 27 times earnings the market is clearly index bubble by historical standards.

Successful Investors

06 Aug 2016

Three synchronized elements to form the foundation of successful investors: time, technique, temperment.

Is the Market Overvalued?

25 Jul 2016

The longer this stability lasts, the lower the quality of new loans and make the market overvalued as a result of myopic institutional memory.

Operating Earnings

22 Apr 2016

Operating earnings are the way Buffett prefers compare the growth within the various segments of the company because GAAP reported earnings are distorted.

Article by investment manager in Bay Hill Living

16 Apr 2016

Article investment manager Richard Losch about building a foundation in investment in "Bay Hill Living" magazine.

Building Foundation

18 Feb 2016

In this way corrections building foundation for the next leg of a long bull market. Will discuss about building foundation.

3G Culture - Dream Big

09 Dec 2015

Dream Big is a story of the 3G culture partners from their days a Garantia Bank in the 1970’s up though the Imbev’s purchase of Anheuser-Busch.

Myopic Loss Aversion

09 Nov 2015

The investor’s goal should be to buy low and sell high, but myopic loss aversion causes us to do the opposite, remember about this.

CBI Nuclear Energy

25 Aug 2015

The CBI's nuclear energy business appears to have generated more problems than it is worth - the nuclear energy reactors in the US.

St Joe Company

15 Jul 2015

The St Joe Company announced that long term master plan for Bay and Walton Counties was approved by Bay, Walton Counties, state Florida.

What’s in a Word? Plastics.

14 Jul 2015

Plastics can be made in countries where crude oil is available, the production cost when using naphtha is higher than when starting with ethane.

Are Bonds Safer Than Stocks?

17 Jun 2015

Importantly, even with this dramatic interest rate decline, bonds still lagged stocks in preserving and growing investors’ purchasing power.

Chicago Bridge and Iron

31 Dec 2014

Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder of Chicago Bridge and Iron, currently holding 9.8% of the company’s outstanding stock.

CAMEX 2014

31 Dec 2014

CAMEX 2014 at the Orlando, this is a new trade show put on by the Composite Industry. The impression that everything made out of plastics.

Global Economy October 2014

27 Oct 2014

The world economy is weak. China growth is down, Russian economy is weak, the US recovery has been the product of of the Federal Reserve.

Fluor Corporation

30 Sep 2014

Fluor corporation is the largest construction and engineering company in the United States. It has offices in 25 countries.

Interesting Quotes from Daily Journal Annual Meeting

11 Sep 2014

Interesting and Intriguing Quotes from Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2014 from Charlie Munger.

The Daily Journal Annual Meeting

10 Sep 2014

The Daily Journal Annual Meeting. Charlie Munger answer questions from the audience, expound on his philosophy of the stock market.

Albemarle Corporation

30 Jun 2014

Albemarle Corporation is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of specialty chemicals. Company has a long history of steady earnings growth.

Triumph Group

30 Jun 2014

Triumph Group started out as an MRO in 1994, but since then has expanded to a much broader footprint in Aerospace through acquisitions.

The American Energy Revolution

15 Mar 2014

The existing assumptions that have governed the business are beginning to change. We are see the potential of deficit energy - oil and gas.

Singapore

01 Mar 2014

Singapore is an important location for companies doing MRO business in Asia. Has government that create a favorable business climate.

St Joe Company Update

01 Dec 2013

St Joe Company has announced the sale its land holdings in the Florida Panhandle. The sale is for 387,000 acres for $565 million.

Hedge Fund Managers

01 Oct 2013

The new book "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" is series of interviews with twelve hedge fund managers. All have in common - is a great record.

Triumph Group Inc.

01 Aug 2013

Triumph Group Inc. is a federation of highly specialized suppliers to the aerospace industry. In the last 15 years has increased its annual revenue.

Bitter Brew

01 Apr 2013

I recommend "Bitter Brew" by W. Knoedelseder, and "Dethroning the King" by J. MacIntosh to anyone with an interest in investment business.

An Antifragile Portfolio

01 Feb 2013

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s "Antifragile" is an important work. This book a must read for anyone with skin in this game of investing.

Leucadia National Corporation

01 Dec 2012

Leucadia National Corporation and Jefferies Group, Inc. announced that the companies have approved an all stock merger agreement.

This Time it is Different

01 Oct 2012

The book “This Time it is Different”, contains a huge database of 800 years of country defaults, banking crises, and currency debasements.

Successful traders psychology

01 Aug 2012

An efficient market should reflect growth in earnings, the actual market does nothing of the kind, but a good deal of successful traders psychology.

St Joe Company

01 Jun 2012

The St Joe Company has a long history in Florida. It was started in the early 1930’s to benefit from the havoc created by the great depression.

Learning from Pain

01 Feb 2012

Free markets generate cycles, and the down cycles bring pain and suffering. Pain is an important part of the corrective process.

Long Cycles - Part II

01 Dec 2011

The long cycles bring into question the efficiency and rationality of traded asset prices; there is no relationship between long cycles and profits.

Long Cycle

01 Nov 2011

We have a bull long cycle where PE ratios expand till they grow bubbles, and a bear long cycle where PEs shrink down to single digits.

Nasty Month for Market

01 Sep 2011

For the nasty month of August, the S&P 500 average was down 5.7%, and the NASDAQ was down 6.4%.

Make a Buck with Fortescue Metals Group

01 Aug 2011

Fortescue Metals Group raised its estimate of liabilities under the Leucadia note to $4 billion ensuring at least a return of 3100% on note.

Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings

02 Jun 2011

This is a table of Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings. The total was $1,680 per “A” share for 2010 that is up from 49% in 2009.

St Joe Company Inc

01 May 2011

This story begins last October when David Einhorn recommended the short of St Joe Company at the Value Investing Congress in New York.

Successful Investment Management

01 Apr 2011

What are the skills that will enable the investor or successful investment management to outperform the market?

A Look Into Latin American Market

01 Mar 2011

Latin American market outperformed important emerging market indexes during the last 10 and 15 years. Stock picking will have an important role.

The Mother of all Quarters

01 Feb 2011

Whitney Tilson says that Berkshire Hathaway’s fourth quarter could be "the mother of all quarters". He offers no estimate of 4th quarter Berkshire.

2010 Investment year results

01 Jan 2011

2010 Investment year results: the average annual return for Losch Management Company taxable accounts was a little less than 22%.

Fault Lines

01 Dec 2010

“Fault Lines” by Raghuram Rajan is an important book and it adds a good deal to our understanding of the causes of the “Great Recession”.

US Market 2010

01 Nov 2010

The chart shows the US market has been getting cheaper since 2002, and that the emerging markets now have about the same PE as US market.

Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2010

01 Oct 2010

The Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2010 will just about reverse the loss shown in the 2 Quarter, the 3 Quarter will show a $2 billion dollar gain.

The Stock Market 2010

01 Sep 2010

The consensus seems to be that the stock market 2010 is floundering, even after flatlining for a decade because the economy is in the doldrums.

Berkshire Hathaway Second Quarter 2010

01 Aug 2010

Berkshire Hathaway Second Quarter 2010 Net Earnings were $1.968 billion. For six months, earnings were $5.601 billion up from $1.761 billion.

Berkshire Hathaway Performance

01 Jul 2010

Will Goldman Sachs return to the glory of its past, or its business model been blown, what will be the impact on Berkshire Hathaway performance?

Long Term Greedy

01 Jun 2010

These are a few of the things which could be helpful to future investors who are long term greedy. As for my opinion I'm with Charlie Munger.

Goldman Sachs

01 May 2010

Michael Lewis thinks that Goldman Sachs should be broken up and that it’s high risk businesses sold to hedge funds.

Berkadia and Leucadia

01 Apr 2010

Berkadia, a joint venture between Berkshire and the Leucadia, acquired the commercial mortgage origination and servicing business of Capmark.

USG corporation

01 Mar 2010

USG Corporation is the largest producer of wallboard used in residential and commercial construction. In 2006 the stock traded as high as $120.

Berkshire Hathaway 2009 2010

01 Feb 2010

Berkshire Hathaway 2009 2010 "B" shares were up 2%, after split 50 for 1 and the stock was up 16.3%. Today BRK offers a better risk, return combination.

Why Capitalism Works

01 Jan 2010

The title of the essay would be “Why Capitalism Works”, because the business cycle, and the hard lessons, are what make capitalism work.

The Lords of Finance

01 Dec 2009

Book of the year “Lords of Finance” offers a perspective that is new and many ways quite different than most of what has been written previously.

The $44 Billion Dollar Train Set

01 Nov 2009

The issuance of new stock to billion dollar train shareholders, if they all take “B” shares (and they won’t), would add another 123,000,000 shares.

Berkshire Hathaway 3rd Quarter 2009

01 Oct 2009

Ravi Nagarajan estimates Berkshire Hathaway 3rd quarter 2009 net earnings from operations will be between $1.7 billion and 2.1 billion.

Career Risk for Investment Manager

01 Sep 2009

Career risk for investment manager means that managers are pressured by what their clients think or by what they believe their clients think.

Berkshire Hathaway financial statements

01 Aug 2009

Berkshire Hathaway financial statements: equity purchases and sales, earnings from operations and capital gains, acquisitions.

Berkshire Hathaway Preferred Stock

01 Jul 2009

The table lists The Berkshire Hathaway Preferred Stock Holdings. This list does not include any of convertible Berkshire Hathaway preferred stock.

Moral Hazard

01 Jun 2009

The unintended consequence of this kind of intervention is what call a moral hazard. Understand the moral hazard the study of the LTCM bailout.

Credit Default Swap

01 May 2009

Some people have even suggested a rule that would require a buyer of a credit default swap to show a legitimate insurable interest.

The Shadow Banking System

01 Apr 2009

Shadow Banking System includes hedge funds, private equity, investment vehicles; depending on whose definition you accept investment banks.

Learning Things the Hard Way

01 Mar 2009

The miracle of Capitalism is that it works at all. Its main virtue, we have been told, is that it is better than the alternatives. To the extent that it does work it is because of its ability to adapt and change, whereas competing ideologies are so dependent on dogma that they become fossilized shortly after conception. Important as this ability to chance is, it does not come easy. Capitalism is no pushover; it is more like a very stubborn mule, so for progress to continue the occasional application of a very large 2x4 is necessary.

Our C-System

01 Feb 2009

While the X-system was necessary for the survival of our ancestors, the C-system is much more useful when making investment decisions.

2008 Investment results

01 Jan 2009

While Berkshire Hathaway earnings will suffer in the fourth quarter of 2008 investment results, 2009 could be a very different story.

Investment Risk

01 Dec 2008

So as panic grips the market place we are getting paid a lot more to take on investment risk at a time when the actual risk that we face is lower.

Bear Markets

01 Nov 2008

Three more bear markets to come but in each case the low in the market was higher than the previous, and each high was above the one.

Generational Events

01 Oct 2008

Currently there has been a lot of talk in the media referring to the current market gymnastics as a generational events.

Orange sheets - Money is doing better

01 Sep 2008

The orange sheets in your packet show the performance of your portfolio, the double digit gains have brought our portfolios back close to their all time highs.

Inflation Not The Problem

01 Aug 2008

I wrote about the possibility that we are facing a prolonged deep world wide recession. Since then I have run across the article "Inflation Not The Problem".

Tipping Point

01 Jul 2008

The inflation bulls tipping point to Money supply growth around the world as evidence inflation will continue. Buffett just ignores the tipping point.

Long Term Capital Management

01 Jun 2008

If the Long Term Capital Management positions had returned to the prices prior to the crisis profit could have amounted to as much as $4 billion.

Financial Insurance

01 May 2008

The financial insurance Berkshire Hathaway is of two basic types, credit default swaps and long term equity put options on major stock indexes.

Western Refining Inc

01 Apr 2008

Western Refining Inc is an independent crude oil refiner and marketer of refined products. It also operates service stations, convenience stores.

Berkshire Hathaway Year To Date

01 Mar 2008

In the year to date, Berkshire Hathaway has continued to power our portfolios to a strong level of out-performance. Our result up 2.0% compared the S&P 500.

Berkshire Hathaway Cash Flow

01 Feb 2008

The Berkshire Hathaway cash flow from this float would have paid for all of the company’s cash business acquisitions with $18 billion left over.

2007 investment results

01 Jan 2008

2007 investment results: Losch Management's accounts with over $1 million showed a gain of 19.92%, less than $1 million gained - 23.15%.

Investment results 4th Quarter 2007

01 Dec 2007

Investment results 4th Quarter 2007 was another good month with Losch Management Company's accounts up 3% – 4% while the S&P 500 was off 4.4%.

Greenspan on Inflation

01 Nov 2007

He optimistic about the future of the American economy. Still, Greenspan on inflation in this country and the rest of the world is anything but rosy.

Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2007

01 Oct 2007

Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2007: company filed seven separate disclosures of sales of PetroChina H Shares during the this quarter.

Berkshire Hathaway Operating income 2007

01 Sep 2007

Berkshire Hathaway operating income is sometimes a better indication of value, than PE, because it is not as affected by items and other games.

Berkshire Hathaway Hedge Fund

01 Aug 2007

We have such a large position in Berkshire is for protection in a down market so for the moment Berkshire Hathaway hedge fund is working.

Leveraged Buyouts

01 Jul 2007

The return to normal profit levels will bring collateral damage to the leveraged buyouts, and you don't want to think about will happen if recession.

Stability Unstable

01 Jun 2007

"Stability unstable" this economic paradox exists, because long periods of stability lure investors, bankers into taking on progressively more risk.

Weak Dollar

01 May 2007

In world with a weak dollar, mediocre domestic growth and a strong international economy, this easily outperform the average domestic portfolio.

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s Letter

01 Mar 2007

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s Letter is enclosed. Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings were spectacular - the earnings actually came in at $3.6 billion.

Steel Dynamics

01 Feb 2007

Steel Dynamics is an eleven year old company that claims to have the most modern steel operation in the United States.

Breakwater Resources

05 Jan 2007

Breakwater Resources trailing PE is 4.4; Breakwater Resources has 71.6 million in cash, short term investments, and 1.1 million in long term debt.

2006 Investment year results

01 Jan 2007

2006 Investment year results: average account was up 16.9%, that 3% better the Wilshire 5000 index and 1.3% better than the S&P 500 index.

New Investment Stocks

01 Dec 2006

New investment stocks that will benefit from weakness in the dollar; they are basic materials stocks; or they are manufacture things in the US.

Equitas

01 Nov 2006

Helping to push Berkshire Hathaway’s stock was the recent announcement of a $15 billion deal with Equitas a trust formed by Lloyds of London.

Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2006

01 Oct 2006

The most interesting thing about Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2006 earnings will be the underwriting gain of its insurance companies.

Hurricane Synergy

01 Sep 2006

This I suspect is part of what we will call Buffett's hurricane synergy, the idea that if Berkshire Hathaway can buy enough companies.

Berkshire Hathaway Second Quarter 2006

01 Aug 2006

The most interesting thing about the Berkshire Hathaway second quarter 2006 report was that there were practically no lumps.

Fat Pitch

01 Jul 2006

It would seem like this would be a market Buffett would love. It looks like a big high floater hung out over the center of the plate - a fat pitch.

Perfectly Obvious

01 Jun 2006

“Does anyone think that Buffett will blow the job of passing that faith on?” What is perfectly obvious to Charlie is not perfectly obvious to everyone.

Berkshire Hathaway Growth Rate

01 May 2006

Berkshire Hathaway Growth Rate must have been 10% to 12% since 2000; otherwise, Berkshire Hathaway would have been buying back stock.

Berkshire Hathaway First Quarter 2006

01 Apr 2006

Without Wilma, Berkshire Hathaway first quarter 2006 would have had an underwriting gain of $1.180 billion in the fourth quarter.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report 2006

01 Mar 2006

The Berkshire Hathaway annual report 2006 lists equity positions of $46.721 billion, whereas the total listed on the last 13F was $42.664 billion.

Inflation Is

01 Feb 2006

Currently, we have the better of two worlds: low-interest rates and a measured rate of inflation is less than the real rate. Inflation helps the debtor.

2005 Investment year results

01 Jan 2006

2005 Investment year results: this year was a pretty dull year for the market as a whole. The composite of Losch Management accounts up 2.18%.

Exogenous Events

01 Dec 2005

Bill Seidman on CNBC was asked how the market was going to do next year he replied that baring any exogenous events it will probably do alright.

The Easy Money

01 Nov 2005

The problem is that prolonged easy money has conditioned financial institutions globally to price their financial contracts with risk premiums.

Look-Through Earnings

01 Oct 2005

Look-through earnings are helpful but they still do not give anything close to a definitive window into Berkshire Hathaway's intrinsic value.

High-Risk Mortgages

01 Sep 2005

The option ARM high-risk mortgages allow the borrowers to make minimum payments that may result in negative amortization.

Unintended Consequences

01 Aug 2005

What chance did the shareholders, investors, or analysts have of being able to predict the impending disaster and its unintended consequences?

Rydex Ursa Fund

01 Jul 2005

Rydex Ursa fund tracks the SP 500 index in reverse. In other words if the SP goes Down 1% in a given day the Rydex Usra fund will go up by 1%.

Warren Buffett Premium

01 Jun 2005

We have been hearing about Warren Buffett premium and the assumption has always been that there will be stock decline when he leaves.

Private Equity

01 May 2005

The private equity is primarily institutional money, pension plans, education institutions such as Harvard or Oxford, and some ultra rich individuals.

Latticework Mental Models

01 Apr 2005

Charlie Munger shows ideas from mathematics, statistics, psychology, economics to building a latticework mental models to be used in investing.

Buffett's Lackluster Performance

01 Mar 2005

On page 17 of the chairman's letter is a table that makes me wonder about Warren Buffett's complaints about his own "lackluster performance".

2004 Investment year results

01 Feb 2005

2004 investment year results: composite return for accounts was 7.1% on a size-weighted basis and 9.1% when all accounts are weighted equally.

Professor Smith's Second Bubble

01 Jan 2005

After a bubble appeared in a trading series there would be a correction and then after the first correction, the bubble would usually reappear. The bubble starts to re-inflate, but this time the participants, burned by their previous experience are more cautious and the values do not become as extreme.

Hedging Currency Disaster

01 Dec 2004

More remarkable is that hedging currency disaster is a large macro bet: purchasing S&P 500 puts, junk bonds purchases, and fixed income sales.

Risk Assessment

01 Nov 2004

The more accepted Modern Portfolio Theory teaches that risk assessment of any common stock investment is a function of the stock's volatility.

Too Many Bears

01 Sep 2004

The excesses of our recent tech bubble were so extreme that one three-year bear market is simply not enough to cleanse Mr. Market's Soul of his predilection to party on.

The Chinese Century?

01 Aug 2004

Jim Rogers says, "The Nineteenth century was the British Century, the Twentieth Century was the American Century, and the twenty first century will be the Chinese Century".

Patterned Irrationality

01 Jul 2004

The more you hear people pushing value investing, the more difficult it will become to make money as a value investor. For me, this means it is time to look for patterned irrationality.

Timber

01 Jun 2004

Total yield on timber today is — and always has been — about 6%, the yield on stocks is down from 4.5% to around 1.2% today. Timber is a good weak-dollar play.

Costco's Cash

01 May 2004

A check of Costco's balance sheet at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004 shows that the retailer is accumulating cash at a rapid rate. Interestingly enough they are accumulation cash faster that they are earning it.

Physics Envy by Charlie Munger

01 Apr 2004

In October of 2003 Charlie Munger gave a lecture to the economics students and describe one of the problems was based on what he called "Physics Envy".

Asset Allocation Berkshire Hathaway

01 Mar 2004

Asset Allocation Berkshire Hathaway tables tells us better than mere words what is going on in Warren Buffett's mind. We see move away from the equity market.

The Balance of Payments

01 Feb 2004

The trade deficit exists because of the power of the American consumer, and while it is likely that currency markets will remain volatile, and may even perhaps get violently more so in the near term, the underlying factors that are the cause of this overvaluation of the dollar are not likely to change in our lifetime.

2003 Investment year results

01 Jan 2004

2003 Investment year results: a composite of all Losch Management Company accounts was up 23.7% versus 25.3% for the Dow and 26.3% for the S&P 500.

Hedge Funds

01 Dec 2003

Money (according to the Grant letter) has been pouring into hedge funds that use various strategies to speculate in convertible and junk debt.

The trade deficit is not debt

01 Nov 2003

My view that trade deficit is more a refection of the worlds desire to hold dollars than it is anything else and the US trade deficit not a form of debt.

Secular Bear Market

01 Oct 2003

A series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets does appear likely within the secular bear market mega trend that started in early 2000.

Which Index Funds?

01 Sep 2003

This list of index funds is very limited, but you get the idea. There are hundreds (maybe thousands) of index funds and they are all basically sector funds.

A Different Drummer

01 Aug 2003

The irony in problems that are causing so much grief for mutual fund investors provide an opportunity to those that are willing to follow a different drummer.

Costco's Float

01 Jul 2003

For instance, the Costco's companies total reported earnings for the period was $481.5 million; this is about the same as the net increase in cash as shown on the Balance Sheet ($483.9 million). Total cash on hand at the end of the period was $1.289 billion or about the same as the companies total debt level.

The Power of Float

01 Jun 2003

Warren Buffett believes that un-taxed float is better than after tax earnings, and so is willing to forgo the pleasure of an over priced stock.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2003

01 May 2003

Here are some links to very good notes from the May 3, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2003.

Psychology of Human Misjudgment

01 Apr 2003

I think Charlie Munger thinks of his specialty as the Psychology of Human Misjudgment, and this error, comes from worrying about the fads and social pressures.

Sitting on the Sidelines

01 Mar 2003

However, we see a very high probability of at least 10% pretax returns (which translate to 6% to 7% after corporate tax), we will sitting on the sidelines.

Berkshire Hathaway intrinsic value

01 Feb 2003

Buffett only buys with a margin of safety we know that estimate of Berkshire Hathaway intrinsic value at the time was substantially in excess of the $45,000.

2002 Investment year results

01 Jan 2003

2002 investment year results showed that Losch Management Company's outperformed the SP 500 buy a 82.7% since the bear market emerged in March of 2000.

Insurance company Moats

01 Dec 2002

Warren Buffett’s Management style is firmly grounded in things like large margins of safety, and the acceptance of short term pain in exchange of long term gain. For insurance companies this is a very different management imperative that GE’s belief that the road to heaven is paved with smooth and ascending earnings reports.

Bond Bubble

01 Nov 2002

About bubbles, the money supply, shorting Treasury Bonds, and the direction of the economy for the rest of 2002. "So is flight to fixed income a rational refection of the economic conditions we can expect in the near future, or is it just Mr. Market scared to death by what he sees in the rear view mirror."

Berkshire Hathaway Cash Flow 2002

01 Oct 2002

To decide if all or a portion of this float should be added to Berkshire Hathaway Cash Flow 2002 when trying to arrive at a figure for intrinsic value.

Behavioral Economics

01 Sep 2002

Beyond what Behavioral Economics tells us about the stock market it may have some interesting things to say about macro economics in general and FED policy.

The Bear Market 2002

01 Aug 2002

Over the course of this bear market, all you had to do, was to be willing to move in the opposite direction of the big money, and listen to Warren and Charlie.

Greenspan Put

01 Jul 2002

The "Greenspan Put" was an instrument that gave a huge boost to our recent bubble. It was an implied promise that Greenspan would intervene to save the market.

Second Quarter Cash Flow at Berkshire Hathaway

01 Jun 2002

What we can see in second quarter cash flow at Berkshire Hathaway, if the first quarter total represents more one half of last years cash flow ($6.5 billion)?

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2002

01 May 2002

Links to the best Internet postings of Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2002, notes and pictures from Omaha.

Red Wire - Green Wire

01 Apr 2002

Warren Bufffett was born with his green wire came connected to a red wire. All people, are born with their emotional green wire attached to another green wire.

Stupid FED Tricks

01 Mar 2002

I think that from now on the FED will have to broaden its mission from controlling prices of goods and services, to include the targeting of equity bubbles.

The Bottom Line

01 Feb 2002

Market conditions are better now, than when Gen Re was bringing that 22% of the premiums down to the bottom line, Warren Buffett expects this kind of return.

2001 Investment year results

01 Jan 2002

In terms of relative performance 2001 Investment year results is one the best investment results Losch Management Company have had. Portfolios was 16.17%.

Don’t Fight the FED

01 Dec 2001

For fifty years the one rule that has always worked is "Don’t Fight The FED". Now there is talk that "Monetary policy does not work anymore".

Buy and Hold? - It all Depends

01 Nov 2001

Buy and hold was an excellent way to burn money. With new bull market, new leadership would emerge; the stuff bought in the last cycle would never come back.

Ben Laden and Berkshire Hathaway

01 Oct 2001

What happens to the intrinsic value of an insurance company when it has to pay 2.2 billion in claims?

The Dinosaurs Dance

01 Sep 2001

This article talks more about moats. Deswell Industries is a company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands with operating subsidiaries headquartered in Hong Kong and all its production facilities located in mainland China.

Costco Moat

01 Aug 2001

In other words Costco can show the same profit on 10.4% markup as Dillard's can on a mark up of 32.3%. For a watch that manufactures sells for $100. Dillard's would have to sell it for $132.30 to make the same profit that Costco would make by selling the same piece for $110.40 (this percentage is actually based on a markdown not a markup so the real prices would be higher, but you get the idea.) Wal-Mart is bringing 1.5% more down to the bottom line so they would price the watch at $124.5 ($123 + $1.50). Low margins and fast turn over can help to create a respectable moat for a retail powerhouse.

Bubble Watching

01 Jul 2001

Big Al won a long and valiant struggle by successfully puncturing bubble number one, but is he now pumping like crazy on start of bubble number two?

Sit on your Ass investing

01 Jun 2001

Charlie Munger introduced the concept of "Sit on your ass investing" at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual meeting. This is a new investment theory.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2001

01 May 2001

Attached enclosing summaries of the question and answer session at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2001 on Saturday April 28.

Carnival Cruise Lines

01 Apr 2001

Unique advantages of Carnival Cruise Lines - company has 44 ships in operation and 16 more on order for delivery over the next five years.

450000 Square Ft Furniture Store

01 Mar 2001

What is one furniture store more or less, to a company the size of Berkshire Hathaway. Maybe, but this is 450000 Square Ft Furniture Store - No ordinary store.

Lunch Money Indicators - Annual report

01 Feb 2001

There is a good place to look for Lunch Money indicators - annual report. Anyway, I said that what got me started on this, was the Costco annual report.

Other People's Money

02 Jan 2001

Expensive capital should produce stagnation, but at Berkshire Hathaway it teaches respect for other people’s money, and promotes growth.

Bear Tracks

01 Dec 2000

Alan Greenspan has indeed unplugged the bubble machine, and the bear is consuming tech stocks like they were so many blue berries.

Build It and Money Will Come

01 Nov 2000

In other words build it and money will come. This is the number one rule of Executive Behavior, and it is the main reason that cheap money always leads to poor returns.

Efficient Stock Market

01 Oct 2000

How rational are stock market values: tech stocks in the stratosphere in March, but 80% less in October.

Style Drift

01 Sep 2000

What happens when mutual fund managers chase Performance at the expense of investor suitability rules.

Lunch Money Indicators - Options

01 Aug 2000

Discusses the effect of stock options on the behavior of corporate managers, and how this behavior may differ from managers who actually own a substantial position in the stock of the company.

Identifying Problems

01 Jul 2000

How Higher interest rates and a slowing economy effect tech stocks. And why a little pain is good for the economy.

Small Retail Stocks

01 Jun 2000

A comparison of four retail specialty companies. Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Buckle, and Pacific Sunwear.

Charlie Munger comments

01 May 2000

While Warren Buffett is always brilliant, concise, and funny, Charlie manages every year to come up with one or two Charlie Munger comments that I remember the longest.

Big Al and the Bubble Machine

01 Apr 2000

Big Al and the Baseball Bat - (It is time to turn off the bubble machine). Fed policy in the spring of 2000, impact on the stock market, the nation's economy.

Berkshire Hathaway Cheap

02 Mar 2000

Berkshire Hathaway stock comment. This Stock's price offers a compelling value at today's prices. Buy now. This is one decision that will last for Ten years.

Index Funds

01 Feb 2000

Index Funds have outperformed most managed stock funds, and I agree with his contention that the mutual fund industry is in for a very traumatic future.

16 rules for investment success

01 Jan 2000

Simple 16 rules for investment success by John Templeton that will help any investor be pop. These rules doesn't conflict with anything taught by Buffett.

    Blog Archive

    2020

    • The Stock Market

    2019

    • Behavioral Investing

    2018

    • Trumped
    • Warren Buffett vs Wall Street
    • Globalism, 1982-2000 Bull Market

    2017

    • Volatility Underlying Calm Market
    • What’s new with CB&I?
    • Passive Investing
    • Economic Cycles
    • Current Stock Market 2017 Comment

    2016

    • Global Plastics Summit Highlights
    • Value Investing vs Index Investing
    • How to Play an Index Bubble
    • Successful Investors
    • Is the Market Overvalued?
    • Operating Earnings
    • Article by investment manager in Bay Hill Living
    • Building Foundation

    2015

    • 3G Culture – Dream Big
    • Myopic Loss Aversion
    • CBI Nuclear Energy
    • St Joe Company
    • What’s in a Word? Plastics.
    • Are Bonds Safer Than Stocks?

    2014

    • Chicago Bridge and Iron
    • CAMEX 2014
    • Global Economy October 2014
    • Fluor Corporation
    • Interesting Quotes from Daily Journal Annual Meeting
    • The Daily Journal Annual Meeting
    • Albemarle Corporation
    • Triumph Group
    • The American Energy Revolution
    • Singapore

    2013

    • St Joe Company Update
    • Hedge Fund Managers
    • Triumph Group Inc.
    • Bitter Brew
    • An Antifragile Portfolio

    2012

    • Leucadia National Corporation
    • This Time it is Different
    • Successful traders psychology
    • St Joe Company
    • Learning from Pain

    2011

    • Long Cycles – Part II
    • Long Cycle
    • Nasty Month for Market
    • Make a Buck with Fortescue Metals Group
    • Berkshire Hathaway Look Through Earnings
    • St Joe Company Inc
    • Successful Investment Management
    • A Look Into Latin American Market
    • The Mother of all Quarters
    • 2010 Investment year results

    2010

    • Fault Lines
    • US Market 2010
    • Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2010
    • The Stock Market 2010
    • Berkshire Hathaway Second Quarter 2010
    • Berkshire Hathaway Performance
    • Long Term Greedy
    • Goldman Sachs
    • Berkadia and Leucadia
    • USG corporation
    • Berkshire Hathaway 2009 2010
    • Why Capitalism Works

    2009

    • The Lords of Finance
    • The $44 Billion Dollar Train Set
    • Berkshire Hathaway 3rd Quarter 2009
    • Career Risk for Investment Manager
    • Berkshire Hathaway financial statements
    • Berkshire Hathaway Preferred Stock
    • Moral Hazard
    • Credit Default Swap
    • The Shadow Banking System
    • Learning Things the Hard Way
    • Our C-System
    • 2008 Investment results

    2008

    • Investment Risk
    • Bear Markets
    • Generational Events
    • Orange sheets – Money is doing better
    • Inflation Not The Problem
    • Tipping Point
    • Long Term Capital Management
    • Financial Insurance
    • Western Refining Inc
    • Berkshire Hathaway Year To Date
    • Berkshire Hathaway Cash Flow
    • 2007 investment results

    2007

    • Investment results 4th Quarter 2007
    • Greenspan on Inflation
    • Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2007
    • Berkshire Hathaway Operating income 2007
    • Berkshire Hathaway Hedge Fund
    • Leveraged Buyouts
    • Stability Unstable
    • Weak Dollar
    • Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s Letter
    • Steel Dynamics
    • Breakwater Resources
    • 2006 Investment year results

    2006

    • New Investment Stocks
    • Equitas
    • Berkshire Hathaway Third Quarter 2006
    • Hurricane Synergy
    • Berkshire Hathaway Second Quarter 2006
    • Fat Pitch
    • Perfectly Obvious
    • Berkshire Hathaway Growth Rate
    • Berkshire Hathaway First Quarter 2006
    • Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report 2006
    • Inflation Is
    • 2005 Investment year results

    2005

    • Exogenous Events
    • The Easy Money
    • Look-Through Earnings
    • High-Risk Mortgages
    • Unintended Consequences
    • Rydex Ursa Fund
    • Warren Buffett Premium
    • Private Equity
    • Latticework Mental Models
    • Buffett’s Lackluster Performance
    • 2004 Investment year results
    • Professor Smith’s Second Bubble

    2004

    • Hedging Currency Disaster
    • Risk Assessment
    • Too Many Bears
    • The Chinese Century?
    • Patterned Irrationality
    • Timber
    • Costco’s Cash
    • Physics Envy by Charlie Munger
    • Asset Allocation Berkshire Hathaway
    • The Balance of Payments
    • 2003 Investment year results

    2003

    • Hedge Funds
    • The trade deficit is not debt
    • Secular Bear Market
    • Which Index Funds?
    • A Different Drummer
    • Costco’s Float
    • The Power of Float
    • Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2003
    • Psychology of Human Misjudgment
    • Sitting on the Sidelines
    • Berkshire Hathaway intrinsic value
    • 2002 Investment year results

    2002

    • Insurance company Moats
    • Bond Bubble
    • Berkshire Hathaway Cash Flow 2002
    • Behavioral Economics
    • The Bear Market 2002
    • Greenspan Put
    • Second Quarter Cash Flow at Berkshire Hathaway
    • Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2002
    • Red Wire – Green Wire
    • Stupid FED Tricks
    • The Bottom Line
    • 2001 Investment year results

    2001

    • Don’t Fight the FED
    • Buy and Hold? – It all Depends
    • Ben Laden and Berkshire Hathaway
    • The Dinosaurs Dance
    • Costco Moat
    • Bubble Watching
    • Sit on your Ass investing
    • Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2001
    • Carnival Cruise Lines
    • 450000 Square Ft Furniture Store
    • Lunch Money Indicators – Annual report
    • Other People’s Money

    2000

    • Bear Tracks
    • Build It and Money Will Come
    • Efficient Stock Market
    • Style Drift
    • Lunch Money Indicators – Options
    • Identifying Problems
    • Small Retail Stocks
    • Charlie Munger comments
    • Big Al and the Bubble Machine
    • Berkshire Hathaway Cheap
    • Index Funds
    • 16 rules for investment success
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