The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report
Despite four Hurricanes and an almost one billion dollar loss to their foreign currency position, Berkshire still had a pretty good year.
"So guided, we've concluded that we should now write mega-cat policies only at prices far higher than prevailed last year - and then only with an aggregate exposure that would not cause us distress if shifts in some important variable produce far more costly storms in the near future."
Notice particularly the "far higher" in the above paragraph and dream a little about what will appear on Berkshire's bottom line if we have another year like 2002 and 2003 that were mega-cat free.
- "Ratchet, Ratchet and Bingo" the fictional consulting firm that
receives "gobs of cash" for ill-designed compensation agreements.
The name is so outrageously funny and cunningly accurate that I will
never read another financial statement without thinking about
"Ratchet, Ratchet and Bingo!"
- "Fred Futile" the CEO of "Stagnant, Inc." who uses option
agreements and stock buybacks to receive $159 million for doing
nothing for ten years. These examples so clearly explain the
problems caused by stock options and buybacks that no investor can
afford not read and understand this passage.
- "Hyper-Helpers" or how Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds will
inevitably lead to lower net returns for investors. The problem for
investors—if you do not know how to pick a good stock how are you
going to be smart enough to pick a good manager?
- Underlying the whole letter is an ominous undertone that many investors will ignore, but will surely bring us much grief. He again writes about his difficulties with Gen Re's Derivatives portfolio (the man who tries to carry a cat home by its tail). Berkshire has spent $404 million and five years trying to liquidate a small portfolio. Yet we now live in a world populated with contracts like these whose notational value now runs into the hundreds of trillions of dollars. This section along, with the piece about the dollar imbalance you can read between the lines and see that while Buffett is bullish about the future of Berkshire Hathaway he is clearly very bearish about the equity and bond markets.
Earnings Example—The Bad Stuff
- Hurricanes losses = $3.500 billion.
- Currency Losses = $955 million
- Gen Re Derivatives losses = $104 million
- Med Pro Reserve Strengthening = $125 million
Look Through Earnings
Berkshire's 2005 look-though earnings; this is the company's operating earnings plus their share of the undistributed earning of the companies whose common stock Berkshire owns.
I have added Diageo to the list even though the only support I have for this position is an article from the US News – a source which is not necessarily that reliable. They claim Berkshire filed a report with an insurance board showing a 15 million share holding of Diageo as of September 30, 2006. The problem is the article did not say what kind of shares. I am showing data for the ADR but after reading Buffett's letter, I would guess that if they own Diageo, they are holding the local (foreign) shares. From the letter:
"We reduced our direct position in currencies somewhat during 2005. We partially offset this change, however, by purchasing equities whose prices are denominated in a variety of foreign currencies and that earn a large part of their profits internationally. Charlie and I prefer this method of acquiring non-dollar exposure."
The annual report lists equity positions of $46.721 billion, whereas the total listed on the last 13f was $42.664 billion. The difference has to be stuff from the confidential list or securities that are not listed with SEC and are therefore not listed on the 13f. About $2 billion of this is Petrochina H shares which are foreign securities. But if we assume that WESCO, which is listed on the 13F, is not included in the equity total in the annual report because it 80% owned and is therefore consolidated into Berkshire's assets and liabilities, then we still have $4+ billion in equities that are missing and unaccounted for. My guess it that most of this is the foreign equities that Warren is talking about above.
Some of these may have been around for a while but Berkshire purchased $1.7 billion of equities in the fourth quarter. About $500 of that appeared on the latest 13f (mostly Wells Fargo) but the remaining $1.2 billion could be part of Warren's "nondollar exposure." Maybe this is more Diageo. Maybe it is some Korean steel. Who knows? This is something we are likely to find out only when Buffett decides to tell us.